This study is almost sure to cause some wretched infighting & mudslinging. Almost everyone hates to have their pet theory proven wrong. Let the anthro wars begin... (or should I say resume?)
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 142452.htm
Booted off the family tree?
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circumspice
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Booted off the family tree?
"Nothing discloses real character like the use of power. It is easy for the weak to be gentle. Most people can bear adversity. But if you wish to know what a man really is, give him power. This is the supreme test." ~ Robert G. Ingersoll
"Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer, and, without sneering, teach the rest to sneer." ~ Alexander Pope
"Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer, and, without sneering, teach the rest to sneer." ~ Alexander Pope
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Minimalist
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Re: Booted off the family tree?
Math and stats, huh? Hmmm......"One can disagree about morphology and the different features of a fossil, but the level of confidence we can put in the mathematical and statistical analyses of the chronological data in this paper makes our argument a very strong one."
Something is wrong here. War, disease, death, destruction, hunger, filth, poverty, torture, crime, corruption, and the Ice Capades. Something is definitely wrong. This is not good work. If this is the best God can do, I am not impressed.
-- George Carlin
-- George Carlin
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circumspice
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Re: Booted off the family tree?
Minimalist wrote:Math and stats, huh? Hmmm......"One can disagree about morphology and the different features of a fossil, but the level of confidence we can put in the mathematical and statistical analyses of the chronological data in this paper makes our argument a very strong one."
Yeah, they've been using statistics for analysis of probability of data sets for a while now... Bayesian statistics...
Bayesian statistics is a theory in the field of statistics based on the Bayesian interpretation of probability where probability expresses a degree of belief in an event, which can change as new information is gathered, rather than a fixed value based upon frequency or propensity.
Bayesian statistics - Wikipedia
"Nothing discloses real character like the use of power. It is easy for the weak to be gentle. Most people can bear adversity. But if you wish to know what a man really is, give him power. This is the supreme test." ~ Robert G. Ingersoll
"Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer, and, without sneering, teach the rest to sneer." ~ Alexander Pope
"Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer, and, without sneering, teach the rest to sneer." ~ Alexander Pope
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circumspice
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Re: Booted off the family tree?
I think that Wikipedia worded the definition of Bayesian statistics poorly. They probably should have used the phrase "degree of confidence" rather than "degree of belief".
"Nothing discloses real character like the use of power. It is easy for the weak to be gentle. Most people can bear adversity. But if you wish to know what a man really is, give him power. This is the supreme test." ~ Robert G. Ingersoll
"Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer, and, without sneering, teach the rest to sneer." ~ Alexander Pope
"Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer, and, without sneering, teach the rest to sneer." ~ Alexander Pope
Re: Booted off the family tree?
Didn't we just have a discussion about this in another thread?
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Minimalist
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Re: Booted off the family tree?
I found Carrier's use of Bayes Theory to be an extreme annoyance in "On The Historicity of Jesus." The problem seems to be that math works great for math but when you have to assign arbitrary values to non-math problems the who thing seems pretty pointless.,
Something is wrong here. War, disease, death, destruction, hunger, filth, poverty, torture, crime, corruption, and the Ice Capades. Something is definitely wrong. This is not good work. If this is the best God can do, I am not impressed.
-- George Carlin
-- George Carlin
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circumspice
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Re: Booted off the family tree?
On this study, they didn't analyze who or what. Their target data was when... The 'when' can be as telling as the 'where' when you're dealing with something as fragmentary as hominid fossils.
"Nothing discloses real character like the use of power. It is easy for the weak to be gentle. Most people can bear adversity. But if you wish to know what a man really is, give him power. This is the supreme test." ~ Robert G. Ingersoll
"Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer, and, without sneering, teach the rest to sneer." ~ Alexander Pope
"Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer, and, without sneering, teach the rest to sneer." ~ Alexander Pope
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Minimalist
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Re: Booted off the family tree?
I'd be curious to know what the margin of error is though. Even 10,000 years is a really long time historically if not geologically.
Something is wrong here. War, disease, death, destruction, hunger, filth, poverty, torture, crime, corruption, and the Ice Capades. Something is definitely wrong. This is not good work. If this is the best God can do, I am not impressed.
-- George Carlin
-- George Carlin
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circumspice
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Re: Booted off the family tree?
Ask cogs, he'd probably know. Or at least know where to find the answer.Minimalist wrote:I'd be curious to know what the margin of error is though. Even 10,000 years is a really long time historically if not geologically.
"Nothing discloses real character like the use of power. It is easy for the weak to be gentle. Most people can bear adversity. But if you wish to know what a man really is, give him power. This is the supreme test." ~ Robert G. Ingersoll
"Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer, and, without sneering, teach the rest to sneer." ~ Alexander Pope
"Damn with faint praise, assent with civil leer, and, without sneering, teach the rest to sneer." ~ Alexander Pope
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Minimalist
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Re: Booted off the family tree?
I'm sure he'll pass by eventually.
Something is wrong here. War, disease, death, destruction, hunger, filth, poverty, torture, crime, corruption, and the Ice Capades. Something is definitely wrong. This is not good work. If this is the best God can do, I am not impressed.
-- George Carlin
-- George Carlin