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Beagle
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Post by Beagle » Mon Mar 05, 2007 4:29 pm

There was a LOT of drama in this so-called docudrama. OK, what about those statistics? I don't think we've got a statistician here but I didn't hear a lot of challenge from Koppel or the panel. Any thoughts?

Minimalist
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Post by Minimalist » Mon Mar 05, 2007 4:37 pm

I suppose if every hypothetical "if statment" were true then the equally hypothetical "then statements" would follow. There was no where near enough concentration on the "if" to justify the findings of the "then."
Something is wrong here. War, disease, death, destruction, hunger, filth, poverty, torture, crime, corruption, and the Ice Capades. Something is definitely wrong. This is not good work. If this is the best God can do, I am not impressed.

-- George Carlin

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Post by Forum Monk » Mon Mar 05, 2007 5:16 pm

Beagle wrote:OK, what about those statistics? I don't think we've got a statistician here but I didn't hear a lot of challenge from Koppel or the panel. Any thoughts?
The statistics seems straight forward on the surface but I am a little perplexed at the meanings behind the numbers. First Professor Feuerverger makes a statement and explanation about how assumptions are required (I may now be confusing the press conference) to make statistics. I assume the numbers are based on assumed frequencies of names but it can get complicated and misleading in a hurry. (I wish I could find the numbers right now but can't) but if we say 1 out of 40 people are named Jesus and 1 out of 200 named Jesus have fathers named Joseph and 1 out of 1000 have fathers named Joseph and a brother named James, and well...its useless to me, trying to figure it out without seeing the meaning of the numbers.

Otherwise I may take a crack at trying to see the logic behind it.
:roll:

Edit: OK I found the numbers on the Discover web page buried in this link:
http://dsc.discovery.com/convergence/to ... plore.html

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Post by Forum Monk » Mon Mar 05, 2007 6:03 pm

Frequency of names -
Jesus x Mariamne x Yose x Maria
1/190 x 1/160 x 1/20 x 1/4 = 1/2400000

Adjust for unintential biases
2400000 / 4 = 600000

Adjust for all possible 1st century tombs
600000 / 1000 = 600

Final odds 600 / 1 in favor of this being the tomb of Jesus.

The initial computation states that given the 4 names the odds are 2,400,000 to 1 in favor of this being the tomb which he then trims.

to illustrate if 1 out 190 people are named Jesus and 1 out of 4 are named Mary, the probabilty of finding a Jesus who's mother is named Mary would be 1 in 760 (190 * 4). When all the first numbers above are multiplied together they are saying the odds of a Jesus, mother Mary, son Yedu, wife Mariamne is 1 in 2432000 (rounded to 2400000). In other words you would need to look at 2,400,000 tombs before you are likely to see such a combination again.

Please correct me if I am wrong.

:)

btw - there must have been mass confusion when ever a mother yelled for Mary since 1 out every 4 girls would have come running. Can that be correct?

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Post by Minimalist » Mon Mar 05, 2007 6:50 pm

No...no....because "Mary" in Jerusalem would have been "Miriam" or "Miryam" except on this tomb where the Latin "Maria" is used.
Something is wrong here. War, disease, death, destruction, hunger, filth, poverty, torture, crime, corruption, and the Ice Capades. Something is definitely wrong. This is not good work. If this is the best God can do, I am not impressed.

-- George Carlin

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Post by Forum Monk » Mon Mar 05, 2007 7:57 pm

Beagle wrote:I'm amazed any more about archaeological technology. For instance, I have lived in Tennessee since 1979. But I was born and raised in Indiana. Upon isotopic analysis by bones would show that I originated in Indiana.
Sorry Beagle but I cleared some clutter out of my head and started thinking about this statement and I have my doubts. Paleo man probably pretty much (like some of my neighbors) under stable conditions, never ventured more than a few miles from home and ate local food stuffs.

You on the otherhand probably grew up on Indiana milk and Indiana corn but I would bet your beef was probably from Nebraska, your fish from the Atlantic, your fruits from Florida, most of your other vegetables and nuts from California, etc, etc. Throw in random food stuffs from Malaysia, Mexico, Canada, France, so on. I bet you the guy who runs your isotopic analysis would resign in frustration.
:cry:

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Post by Forum Monk » Mon Mar 05, 2007 8:24 pm

Surprisingly, to me at least, is the small protest over Simcha's reliance on the the "acts of phillip" and the "gospel of mary" to prove the Mariamne connection. Both documents are 3 to 4 th century at best and decidely Gnostic. The gospel of Mary is fragmentary and basically only seems to establish the importance of Mary and hence by implication, I think, a particular relationship with Jesus. In reality, the earliest documents we have are much later: middle-ages later and though references to the documents exist in the 3rd century there are no surviving texts. Now, that may or may not be significant. But since many people find it hard to believe the 'true' gospels are actual reflections of earlier writings, recorded shortly after the events tranpired, how can they accept these much later manuscripts and cite them as proof of the Jesus/Mary relationship?

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Post by Minimalist » Mon Mar 05, 2007 8:34 pm

I actually got this link from Arch. Pretty good stuff. She's been quoted in some of the stories but, as she complains, it is hard to make the real case in a two line comment.

http://bib-arch.org/bswbKCtombmagness.html
The identification of the Talpiot tomb as the tomb of Jesus and his family is based on a string of problematic and unsubstantiated claims, including adding an otherwise unattested Matthew (Matya) to the family of Jesus; identifying an otherwise unknown son of Jesus named Judah; and identifying the Mariamne named on one of the ossuaries in the tomb as Mary Magdalene by interpreting the word Mara (which follows the name Mariamne) as the Aramaic term for “master” (arguing that Mariamne was a teacher and leader). To account for the fact that Mary/Mariamne’s name is written in Greek, the filmmakers transform the small Jewish town of Migdal/Magdala/Tarichaea on the Sea of Galilee (Mary’s hometown) into “an important trading center” where Greek was spoken. Instead, as in other Jewish towns of this period, generally only the upper classes knew Greek, whereas poorer Jews spoke Aramaic as their everyday language.
Something is wrong here. War, disease, death, destruction, hunger, filth, poverty, torture, crime, corruption, and the Ice Capades. Something is definitely wrong. This is not good work. If this is the best God can do, I am not impressed.

-- George Carlin

Minimalist
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Post by Minimalist » Mon Mar 12, 2007 11:13 am

National Geographic did a show on the Cain / Abel myth last night which I recorded because I was watching Rome on HBO. Interesting in that it sees it as an allegory for conflict between pastoralists and farmers and relates it back to Sumerian and Egyptian tales.

I'm going to send it to Arch anyway just to piss him off. If anyone else wants to see it, just sing out.
Something is wrong here. War, disease, death, destruction, hunger, filth, poverty, torture, crime, corruption, and the Ice Capades. Something is definitely wrong. This is not good work. If this is the best God can do, I am not impressed.

-- George Carlin

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marduk
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Post by marduk » Mon Mar 12, 2007 11:44 am

in sumerian Cain translates phonetically as Mountain area
and Abel translates phonetically as raised sea

seeing as they were supposedly found near Eden its funny that this is supposedly in modern turkey on the shores of the elevated black sea by the steppes of the caucasus mountains
Adam is a sumerian word the same as Eden which means respectively steppe dweller and mountain steppe
:lol:
fun with words
don't they call that Kabbalah
:twisted:
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Beagle
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Post by Beagle » Mon Mar 12, 2007 11:50 am

Minimalist wrote:National Geographic did a show on the Cain / Abel myth last night which I recorded because I was watching Rome on HBO. Interesting in that it sees it as an allegory for conflict between pastoralists and farmers and relates it back to Sumerian and Egyptian tales.

I'm going to send it to Arch anyway just to piss him off. If anyone else wants to see it, just sing out.
Thanks Min, but I'm already familiar with that analysis.
I meant to post some thoughts on the Toba show also and I haven't gotten around to it.

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Post by Minimalist » Tue Mar 13, 2007 9:08 pm

Tomorrow they are finally re-broadcasting the two episodes of Naked Archaeologist that I missed last December.
Something is wrong here. War, disease, death, destruction, hunger, filth, poverty, torture, crime, corruption, and the Ice Capades. Something is definitely wrong. This is not good work. If this is the best God can do, I am not impressed.

-- George Carlin

Minimalist
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Post by Minimalist » Wed Mar 14, 2007 10:28 pm

Okay. Finally got the final two Naked Archaeologist episodes, Temple Mount 1 and Temple Mount 2.

Not as bad as many of the others. At least Simcha keeps his personal clowning down to a minimum. An interesting bit with Tuvia Sagiv who has a theory that the temple was not where everyone thinks it was and that the Dome of the Rock and El Aqsa mosque are built over the plan of the Roman temple to Jupiter which was built in Aelia Capitolina after Hadrian rebuilt the city c 140.

Thought provoking for a change instead of merely vomit provoking.
Something is wrong here. War, disease, death, destruction, hunger, filth, poverty, torture, crime, corruption, and the Ice Capades. Something is definitely wrong. This is not good work. If this is the best God can do, I am not impressed.

-- George Carlin

ravenwing5910
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Post by ravenwing5910 » Wed Mar 14, 2007 11:44 pm

hope this link works.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/17599355/

head line "Scholar: 'Jesus Tomb' makers mistaken"

8)

Minimalist
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Post by Minimalist » Thu Mar 15, 2007 12:31 am

LOL. Steve Pfann was on his Temple Mount episode tonight!
Something is wrong here. War, disease, death, destruction, hunger, filth, poverty, torture, crime, corruption, and the Ice Capades. Something is definitely wrong. This is not good work. If this is the best God can do, I am not impressed.

-- George Carlin

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