Minimalist wrote:The concern is that these popular uprisings will be hijacked by hard core religious fanatics.
Yes, that is true. And a valid concern.
It is also true that that dark scenario has been used to justify autocratic exploitation of the people, and the police state. No less dark a scenario of course. But this one requiring, and succeeding in getting, by the billion, the hypocritical western (and in the sixties the communist) backing of terrible dictatorships. Scores of them. In Egypt's case in the last 60 years, and especially in the last 30 years.
That concern is at least as valid.
What western leaders have failed to recognize this time is the determination of the people of Egypt, and they have sofar seriously misjudged the outcome, and consequently backed (and are still backing) the wrong horse.
Way too early to tell how this is going to work out.
Absolutely. In the long run.
In the short term it is clear who needs, and deserves, western backing to minimize bloodshed.
Watch how Mubarak is wriggling and slithering, and instigating and provoking violence and chaos to avoid stepping down.
If the US were to suspend their annual
billions of military aid, the life-blood of the Egyptian army, I think we might see the Egyptian military 'convince' Mubarak to go. In 5 minutes.
And it need never get to the front pages, either, because neither party would like to publicize they buckled under pressure. That's not cool for macho armies and dictators to be seen doing, you see.
So Mubarak could have chosen to publicly give any reason he liked for stepping down, except the real one (that his army told him to go, and why), and the army would let him, because they don't want it public either.
Last week, when all this began,
and the Egyptian military top brass were in the US, would have been the perfect opportunity to get that message across to the Egyptian generals. And none of the nastiness and bloodshed of the past week-and-a-half would have needed to happen. That opportunity, as we all know, was missed by the Obama administration!