The "What Is More Likely Test"
Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2009 5:06 pm
The ongoing discussion about Neanderthals on the other thread has reminded me of a test which Dilbert author ( http://www.dilbert.com ) Scott Adams mentioned in one of his books.
Essentially, Adams put it in work place terms since that is his thing. For example: Your boss says to you that if you work unpaid overtime you will be rewarded with a future promotion. Adams asks, "What is More Likely?" Is it:
a) the senior managers will be impressed by your dedication to the firm and reward you accordingly or,
b) that your boss' promises will be revealed to be a stinking pile of 4 day old vomit?
Obviously, in the corporate world the usual answer would be "b."
In this case, A) we have one group which says that HSS came out of Africa 70,000 years ago and replaced (by warfare, disease or because we are so much smarter than) HNS with no interbreeding between them because, after all, they were different species...or
b) that both HNS and HSS evolved from an earlier common ancestor (HE) and in spite of regional differences resulting from isolation and too much inbreeding, still retained the ability to interbreed thus picking up (in those areas where traits such as red or blond hair had developed) certain distinctive characteristics which did not develop in "Africa?"
Which is more likely?
I'm voting for B.
Essentially, Adams put it in work place terms since that is his thing. For example: Your boss says to you that if you work unpaid overtime you will be rewarded with a future promotion. Adams asks, "What is More Likely?" Is it:
a) the senior managers will be impressed by your dedication to the firm and reward you accordingly or,
b) that your boss' promises will be revealed to be a stinking pile of 4 day old vomit?
Obviously, in the corporate world the usual answer would be "b."
In this case, A) we have one group which says that HSS came out of Africa 70,000 years ago and replaced (by warfare, disease or because we are so much smarter than) HNS with no interbreeding between them because, after all, they were different species...or
b) that both HNS and HSS evolved from an earlier common ancestor (HE) and in spite of regional differences resulting from isolation and too much inbreeding, still retained the ability to interbreed thus picking up (in those areas where traits such as red or blond hair had developed) certain distinctive characteristics which did not develop in "Africa?"
Which is more likely?
I'm voting for B.