Archaeologica.org

E.P. Grondine wrote:The Perseids just occurred. But SW3's debris chain is a whole lot different than that.

In 1995, 73P began to disintegrate.[2] It was seen to break into five large pieces labelled 73P-A, B, C, D & E. As of March 2006, at least eight fragments were known: B, C, G, H, J, L, M & N. On April 18, 2006, the Hubble Space Telescope recorded dozens of pieces of fragments B and G. It appears that the comet may eventually disintegrate completely and cease to be observable (as did 3D/Biela in the 19th century), in which case its designation would change from 73P to 73D. It is now known to have split into at least 66 separate objects.[3] Nuclei C is the largest and the presumed principal remnant of the original nucleus.[4]

The fragments were passing the Earth in late April and early May 2006, coming nearest to the Earth around May 12 at a distance of about 11.9 million km (7.4 million miles). That is a close pass in astronomical terms (0.08 AU) though nothing to be concerned about. In 1930 when it passed the Earth this close, there were meteor showers with as many as 100 meteors per minute. However, recent analysis by P. A. Wiegert et al.[5] suggests that a recurrence of this spectacle is unlikely.

In 2022, the comet fragments are expected to pass nearer to the Earth than in 2006. If the fragments continue to break up, it may become impossible to track all of them since each time a fragment splits, the resulting sub-fragments are fainter and have divergent trajectories.

Comets actually have two tails: the dust tail and the gas or ion tail. The
names should tell you what is in them. Both tails always point away from
the Sun, independent of the comet's motion. The dust tail is formed of
solid particles escaping from the cometary nucleus into their own solar
orbits and may be slightly curved.

E.P. Grondine wrote:research funding has been limited, so we are not sure how severe the effects of SW3's dust may or may not be.

Rokcet Scientist wrote:
What difference does it make?
Suppose we learn in 2012 (due to richly funded research budgets) that a 200 meter chunk will impact somewhere in the northern hemisphere (but we don't know exactly where yet). What are we going to do about it?

The only, and disastrous effect will be the mother of all panics, wars all over the place, large-scale looting, general lawlessness, opportunistic violence round every corner, and the complete destruction of the social fabric. I.o.w. terrible, but unneccessary massive suffering as a result. A decade of self-inflicted hell on earth...

That rock will be heaven sent (!) to end all that unspeakable misery in beautiful cosmic fireworks.

No thanks, E.P.
Go terrorize the Klingons or something!
But please spare us your panic stories. They're dangerous. You're dangerous!

multiple non-nuclear charges and fragment it into smaller less deadly pieces.

E.P. Grondine wrote:

Rokcet Scientist wrote:
What difference does it make?
Suppose we learn in 2012 (due to richly funded research budgets) that a 200 meter chunk will impact somewhere in the northern hemisphere (but we don't know exactly where yet). What are we going to do about it?

The only, and disastrous effect will be the mother of all panics, wars all over the place, large-scale looting, general lawlessness, opportunistic violence round every corner, and the complete destruction of the social fabric. I.o.w. terrible, but unneccessary massive suffering as a result. A decade of self-inflicted hell on earth...

That rock will be heaven sent (!) to end all that unspeakable misery in beautiful cosmic fireworks.

No thanks, E.P.
Go terrorize the Klingons or something!
But please spare us your panic stories. They're dangerous. You're dangerous!

Wrong, RS. We can hit a chunk that size with multiple non-nuclear charges and fragment it into smaller less deadly pieces. For climate problems we can alter planting times, food storage, etc

Unlike the Klingons, SW3 is there. If it doesn't turn to dust, as NASA hopes, the panic you describe happens if actions are not taken.

You seem to be confused, or trying to spread confusion. As far as me being dangerous, its the impactors that are dangerous. Personally, I think you're being ungrateful.

As far as richly funded research budgets goes, where did you get that idea?

Digit wrote:And again, if an impact tsunami is proportional to mass and velocity, smaller impacts must be less dangerous.