2012 Galactic Crossing!

[Forum Monk]

We are hearing more and more that on 21 Dec 2012, the earth will cross the galactic center where the tidal forces from the huge black hole at the center of our galaxy will shred the solar system. It is said that this crossing in the past has resulted in mass extinctions on the earth. Many people are experiencing genuine fear while the usual gaggle of opportunists sell books and videos about the subject.

The fact is there is no book or video that will prevent what is about to happen and there is nothing we can do to prepare for the inevitable crossing. I have run the simulations and sure enough, sometime on the date of dread, the earth, sun and approximate galactic center will be in a perfect alignment. Will that spell doom for us?

Tomorrow, I will post some images illustrating the phenomenon and I will give further commentary. If only they had told us sooner we might have had time to prepare.

[Forum Monk]

Here is a preview:

According to the alarmists, a galactic alignment will occur on 21 Dec 2012. This is tied to the end of the Mayan long count calendar where many speak of the end of the age, or the beginning of an age of enlightment. But now, with the realization of the galactic crossing, a lot of people are expressing fear of major castastrophe. So I broke out the simulator and dialed up the date in question:


(Image 1: the plane of the galaxy - line seen slicing through the center of the milky way - is being crossed by the sun as it travels along the line of the ecliptic. date 21 Dec 2012 - approx 10:30AM)

I first heard of this observation by author John Major Jenkins about a year ago. Jenkins wrote a book and maintains this website:
http://alignment2012.com/whatisGA.htm which details his "findings".

[rich]

Monk, I don't know what to say - except -


uh - this is soooo unlike you.

Now I gotta go back to my room and think about this - sheesh. I tell ya'. What is this world comin' to when someone like Kenny does this to us.

Grrrrrrrrr

[Minimalist]

Wasn't there some kind of galactic alignment a few years ago that did, basically, nothing?

I have to pay more attention to this stuff, Monk.

[Forum Monk]

Monk, I don't know what to say - except -
uh - this is soooo unlike you.

?

Wasn't there some kind of galactic alignment a few years ago

Yes there was.

[Minimalist]

Okay.....and we're still here so perhaps 'galactic alignments' are overrated as a source of catastrophism?

[spacecase0]

the sun spots have gone away, so maybe something big is happening,
but I bet we find out before 2012

[rich]

If I remember right sun spots have about an 11 year cycle.

[Forum Monk]

Many have taken Jenkins work and misrepresented it, although he has certainly done nothing to correct the errors as he seems to appreciate the attention. It is important to note that no where does Jenkins ever say the solar system will cross the plane of the galactic center. It speaks of it a "precessional" event. It is really an illusion, caused by our position in the galaxy in combination with our current angle of precession.

The line which marks the galactic plane completely encircles the solar system after all it follows the center of the milky-way and we see some part of the milky-way practically all year around as we revolve around the sun on our yearly voyage (we would see it 365 days of the year if we could see stars during the daylight hours). So, looking out toward the sun and beyond, it would appear that sun crosses the galactic plane not once, but twice each year; every year; as it has for 4.5 billion years. Our solar system is not physically passing through the plane, it appears to cross over due to our position with respect to the sun and the plane of the galaxy.


(Image 2: As earth orbits the sun, the sun appears to pass in across the line of the galactic center on a certain date)


(Image 3: Six months later, the sun again appreas to cross the galactic center, but this time 180 degrees from the first crossing point)

As you can see, the sun is not moving with respect to the galactic center, but rather the earth is moving and so appears the sun is moving. The illusion of alignment between earth, sun and galactic center occurs twice per year.

Notes:
1. The galactic plane is tilted a little more than 60 degrees from the ecliptic plane.

[Forum Monk]

So let's look at the 21 Dec crossing once again:


(Image: 4 Another view of the sun appearing to cross the galactic core on 21 Dec. 2008)

If you are really observant you should notice something. Look at the date. Its 2008! The crossing of the galactic core occurs every year around the time of winter solstice. In fact the location of the sun is nearly identical as it will be in 2012. And identical to where it was in 2004, 2000, 1998, etc. Pick a year. If you compare the 2012 image with the 2008 image, the only thing appearing in different locations are the planets.

So, we should expect to a similar crossing six months later.


(Image 5: Crossing in the summer)

Above you see the sun appear to cross the plane six months later, 180 degrees from the galactic core.

[Forum Monk]

So what about all this extinction stuff - is that real science? Has the earth ever really crossed the galactic plane?

Yes.

The solar system (our sun, dragging its planets with it) is orbiting the Milky Way galaxy at 220km per second. But the milky way is huge, about 200,000 light years across.


(Image 6: The sun orbits the galactic core)

The sun is orbiting at a distance of about 25,000 light years and takes somewhere around 240,000,000 years to go completely around. Also you can see the average thickness of the galactic disk is about 1400 light years.

But the sun does an oscillation as it travels which indeed causes it to cross the plane of the galaxy. Its believed the sun will do 3 or 4 complete oscillation cycles in one orbit. In worst case that means we will cross the plane at most 8 times during each 240,000,000 year round trip.

Notes:
1. The actual trip around the galaxy can take from 225 to 250 million years. It is not not known with precision. My notes use 240my to simplify the math.
2. Some are now saying the sun oscillates 2.7 times per galactic orbit. That would equate to 5.4 half-cycle crossings per each 240my orbit.

[Forum Monk]

It turns out, then, we probably physically pass through the plane about once every 30,000,000 years. And scientist have correlated these dates with mass-extinction events. This is due to tidal and gravitation disturbances to the kuiper belt which eject comets and other debris, increasing the likelihood of earth impact. Other possible explanations of the extinctions have also been offered.


(Image 7: One oscillation of the solar system across the galactic plane)

The image above illustrates our current situation. We last crossed sometime around 8,000,000 years ago and are currently moving away from the plane toward our maximum distance above the plane . Thats right folks. We are no where near the plane and in fact we are moving farther away from it. But if you're still around 22,000,000 years from now, it could get rough.

(Note distances and times are approximate - the galaxy is huge and so the measurements are still being refined. I have used a few estimates here and there but trust me. My numbers are real close. Whats a million or so either way?).



Notes:
1. Some researchers estimate that we last crossed the galactic plane 18mya, not 8 as shown in the above image.
2. If the actual crossing oscillation frequency is 2.7 times per galactic orbit, the half-cycle crossing time would be approx. 40-44 million years

[War Arrow]

Terrific stuff, FM. Very impressive.

A few minor points occur:

1) I seem to remember the Milky Way being estimated as roughly 4 light years deep (ie - thick) - is this wrong, or are we very literally flying above the plane?

2) Thanks for the Canis Major info by the way - very much appreciated.

3) This 2012 thing. I first came across it in a book called 'The Mayan Prophecies' ( ), published by Element (who therefore now count as an untrustworthy publisher in my house) and written by some berk whose name I am happy to have forgotten. His basic idea was that these prophecies were recorded in yer usual Palenque coffin-top carvings, but only if you took two photos of said images, superimposed them over one another at certain angles to reveal a third "random" image (Maya didn't need photography equipment to read these images, they did the superimposition in their heads using The Wisdom of the Ancients (C)) anyway, these random images (if you squinted really hard) looked vaguely like jaguars - all proving that the world would end in 2012!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Pardon sarcastic use of exclamation marks there!

Anyway, reading this UTTER FUCKING KAK (excuse my language) a few questions occured to me, notably (1) why would the Maya need to record such things by so improbable a method, given their usual enthusiasm for anything to do with jaguars? (2) one of this guy's superimpositions looked one hell of a lot more like Mickey Mouse than any jaguar representation I've seen, so what does The Wisdom of The Ancients (C) tell us about Disneyland (and is it truly the Happiest Place in the World?) and (3) 2012 - what the fuck?

Anyway, I did some maths (this was in the days before computers for me so it's all on bits of paper somewhere) and although I will admit I'm no mathematical genius (but then again, I do know how to use a calculator), I worked out this 2012 thing for myself and found the problem seems to be that (aside from whether or not this was truly predicted as the end of anything but a calendrical cycle) you only get 2012 if you work it out from the base date (13th August 3113 BC I believe) on a backdated to 3113 BC Gregorian calendar combined with a version of the Mayan calendar which had no means of correcting for leap years (which seems not to be the case) - so in other words 2012 is balls in Mayan terms, just one of a number of possible dates derived from a misreading of the calendar and how it worked, presumably deliberately so as to conveniently line up with the above.

Anyway, from what I understand, 2012 derives from Terrance McKenna who believes that on that date some really great spooky enlightenment jamboree will turn us into Godlike beings comparable even to Yoda from Star Wars... or something. My evidence against Mr. McKenna's claim is that said claim is credited to Terrance McKenna and is therefore not to be trusted. I base this upon the rubbish he spouts, plus the fact that he has the whiny voice of someone who, although bullied at school, clearly was not bullied ENOUGH!

Wooah. Sorry... went into one there.

[Forum Monk]

Thanks WA.
The average thickness of the milky way disk is over 1000ly - there is a larger central bulge and it probably tapers off near the edge (which is not a defined boundary, btw). If you think about it, since we are wobbling around 25,000 ly out from the core, bobbing up and down about 125 ly each way, and considering the true thickness of the thing, we are never really outside of the plane by very much. If the core was pumping out death and destruction along the plane in the shape of some kind of flattened accretion disk, we would probably never be outside of its realm throughout our 200+ million year orbit around the galaxy.

Your mention of the coffin carvings and the superimposed jaguars really struck me, because I've seen that somewhere. Can't remember where but I distinctly rememeber coming across it a few years back.

Another interesting thing, imo about the mayan end date is how very dependent it is upon the mayan start date and yet most people don't realize that is not known with absolute certainty and I'm glad you wrestled with it recently and point that out. Supoosedly, there is a synchronization date or two but calendars can be tricky to work with. e.g. when the spanish were recording their deeds in mexico and central america, what calendar were they actually using? Gregorian presumably but....

My commentary:
In other threads we have discussed how scientific achievement is a progression which must be built step-wise and often the various stages are achieved by blind luck. It is highly unlikey any ancient civilzation knew astronomy any better than what could be deduced by pure naked-eye observation. Now that does not rule out strange sights, like comets careening through the solar system or the occasional supernova but they no doubt were mysterious anomalies that evoked fear then wonder, but little knowledge.

[War Arrow]

Sorry - just noticed 1,400 light year thickness on the diagram up there.

The Spaniards were recording Julian dates when they first arrived in Mexico, and the change to Gregorian didn't occur until 1583. But yes - it's difficult enough correlating Mexican and European systems as it is even without getting into the more complex areas like 13/8/-3113, so I suspect a lot of it is best taken with a big pinch of sodium chloride*

Well made points here, and I tend to agree. Overstating the astronomy (or anything, come to think of it) of the ancients strikes me as dubious because (aside from the simple misrepresentation) it is in some ways a little patronising, downplaying the significance of whatever they actually did achieve which is often in itself quite impressive enough without having to invent anything extra.

* = courtesy of Huixtocihuatl, the salt Goddess!